Netflix’s stock is down more than 40% year-to-date, stung by both worries about slowing subscriber growth and a broader tech-stock selloff.
As a result, investor expectations don’t look particularly high ahead of the streaming giant’s latest earnings report.
Among analysts polled by FactSet, the consensus is for Netflix to report first-quarter revenue of $7.93 billion (up 11% annually), GAAP EPS of $2.90 and – most importantly, given how much subscriber figures determine how Netflix’s stock moves post-earnings – 2.5 million paid net streaming subscriber adds.
Netflix issues quarterly sales guidance within its shareholder letters. For the second quarter, Netflix’s paid net add consensus stands at 2.55 million.
Eric Jhonsa, Real Money’s tech columnist, will be live-blogging Netflix’s report, which is expected after the close on Tuesday, along with a “video interview” with management that’s scheduled to become available at 6 P.M. Eastern Time. Please refresh your browser for updates.
4:02 PM ET: Shares are down 17.3% after-hours to $288.41.
4:02 PM ET: The letter is out. Netflix reports Q1 streaming paid net adds of negative 200K, below a consensus for a gain of 2.5M.
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Q2 paid net add guidance is for a loss of 2M subs vs. a consensus for a gain of 2.55M.
4:00 PM ET: Netflix closed up 3.2%. The Q1 letter should be out any minute.
3:55 PM ET: Netflix’s stock is up 2.9% today heading into earnings, amid a 2.1% gain for the Nasdaq. But shares are still down 42% YTD. They tumbled in January due to the light Q1 paid net add guidance Netflix provided in its Q4 shareholder letter.
3:52 PM ET: The FactSet consensus is for Netflix to post Q1 revenue of $7.93B and GAAP EPS of $2.90. But subscriber add figures tend to have a bigger impact than revenue/EPS figures on how Netflix moves post-earnings.
Netflix’s Q1 paid subscriber net add consensus stands at 2.5M (in-line with Netflix’s January guidance). And its Q2 paid net consensus stands at 2.55M.
Of note: In March, Netflix suspended operations in Russia, where the company had ~1M streaming subs.
3:48 PM ET: Hi, this is Eric Jhonsa. I’ll be live-blogging Netflix’s earnings report (shareholder letter) and video interview.